Eurostat lowers Poland’s 2100 population forecast by 4 million

Apr 24, 2026 | COVID-19, Society

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland’s population is set to fall 32% by 2100, more than previously thought, according to a new forecast by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency.

It predicts that the population, which currently stands at around 37.5 million, will drop to just 25.6 million by 2100. That is almost four million less than the figure of 29.5 million predicted by Eurostat just three years ago,

The figures highlight the scale of the demographic crisis faced by Poland, which has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates and where the number of deaths has outnumbered births for the last 13 years running.

Eurostat’s latest projections are based on updated assumptions about fertility, mortality and net migration. It projects that, without migration, which has been at record-high levels over the last decade, Poland’s population would drop to just 19 million by 2100.

Poland’s population is expected to decline far more sharply than the EU average, falling by about 32% by the turn of the century compared to 11.7% of the EU as a whole.

Last year, Poland’s own statistics agency, Statistics Poland (GUS), also warned that Poland’s demographic decline could proceed even more rapidly than previously assumed.

GUS’s new calculations, which assume that record-low fertility rates will continue, showed that the population could fall to just 29.4 million by 2060, which was about 1.5 million lower than a previous forecast from 2023. The latest Eurostat figures predict the 2060 population 31.2 million.

 

Poland’s population has fallen almost every year since 2012, when it stood at 38.53 million. The one exception was 2017, when there was a small rise (of less than 1,000).

The decline continued to accelerate in 2025, as Poland recorded around 168,000 more deaths than births, the highest since the pandemic year of 2021, when deaths rose to record levels.

In 2024, the fertility rate – meaning the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime – fell to 1.099, which is one of the lowest figures anywhere in the world.

Migration to Poland has partially softened the negative trend. Poland has seen some of the highest migration inflows in the EU, while its population was also boosted by the influx of Ukrainian refugees from 2022.

Eurostat notes that its 2025 figures for Poland exclude Ukrainians under temporary protection status. As of February, there were almost one million of them in Poland. Together with economic migrants and students, around 1.5 million Ukrainians in total are estimated to reside in Poland.

However, the current government, which took office in 2023, has introduced tougher migration controls, resulting in falling numbers of new arrivals.

Poland’s worsening demographic situation has been at the centre of public debate for years, with various governments trying to address the issue. However, a range of state incentives – from raising child benefits to renewed funding for IVF – have failed to halt the demographic slide.

Apart from its declining size, Poland’s population is also changing in structure, with its workforce supporting more retirees and fewer children than three decades ago.

In its calculations published last year, GUS predicted that the proportion of people of working age, currently 58.4%, would fall to just 47.6% by 2060. Meanwhile, those of post-working age would rise from 23.3% to 37.4%.


Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Roman Biernacki/Pexels

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