A study of young first-time voters ahead of this autumn’s parliamentary elections shows them overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the current political situation in Poland.
The largest proportion of them, around one third, are planning to vote for the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja), which has recently been surging in polls. However, there is a significant gender divide, with The Left (Lewica) the most popular option among young women.
This year, over 1.4 million Poles aged 18-21 will be able to vote for the first time, notes the report, Debutants ’23, which is based on a survey of 1,000 such young people – a standard size for nationally representative samples in polling – as well as interviews in focus groups.
Asked whether they agreed or disagreed with various statements, 80% of respondents confirmed that they feel “frustrated with the current political situation in Poland”. That was a higher figure than for any other statement.
However, the second highest figure – 70% who agreed that they “want to have a calm life without needing to engage in political or social issues” – suggested that young people feel engaged in politics reluctantly and out of a sense of necessity.
Meanwhile, 68%, the third highest finding, agreed that they “have completely different views from their parents on many issues”.
In 1992, almost 70% of young Poles regularly practiced religion; today, less than 25% do.
A new report shows that religious practice has fallen significantly among the whole Polish population over that period, but religious belief (still at 87%) much less https://t.co/7S5FxnCsBo
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) November 26, 2021
In a separate part of the survey, the same proportion, 68%, said that they were either definitely (43%) or probably (25%) going to vote in this autumn’s elections. One in five (21%) said that they definitely (10%) or probably (11%) would not vote.
Young men were eight percentage points more likely to say that they would vote than young women, while people from cities were more likely to want to vote than those from rural areas, as were those with a higher level of education.
Among those who said that they were probably or definitely going to vote, the most popular party was Confederation, with 31% picking it as the one party they would vote for and 36% picking it as one of various possible parties they could support.
In second place was the main centrist opposition Civic Coalition (KO), with figures of 15% and 32% respectively, followed by The Left, with 13% and 18%; the centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga), with 6% and 14%; and, in last place among the main parties, the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), with 5% and 8%.
The far-right Confederation is now running third in the polls with double-digit support.
That raises the likelihood of it holding the balance of power after this year's elections and has led to renewed scrutiny of the views of its young new leader https://t.co/jrC2mmxENi
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 2, 2023
There was, however, a significant gender divide. Among young men, Confederation was by far the most popular choice, with 46%, followed by KO (19%), The Left (5%), PiS (5%) and Third Way (4%).
Young women, by contrast, were most likely to want to vote for The Left (21%). However, 16% of them chose Confederation, followed by KO (10%), Third Way (8%) and PiS (4%). A far larger proportion of women (39%) than men (19%) said it was hard to say who they would vote for.
Those findings reflect long-standing patterns. Exit polls from the 2019 parliamentary elections show that the youngest voters (18-29) were more likely to support the left or the far right than any other age group. One fifth voted for Confederation, three times more than did so in any other age group.
The far-right party has also always been more popular among men than women, with the exit polls from 2019 indicating it received 9% support among male voters of all ages and only 4.1% among female ones.
Left-wing views among young Poles have reached their highest ever level in regular polling conducted since the fall of communism in 1989.
For the first time, left-wing views are stronger among the young than both right-wing and centrist ones https://t.co/bn95iYTOIe
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) February 8, 2021
The Debutants ’23 study also gives an indication of why Confederation is so popular among young Poles. Asked to identify the characteristics of their ideal political party, over half (53%) of respondents chose “lowering taxes”, which was the most popular answer.
Since late last year, Confederation has de-emphasised its nationalist positions on issues like immigration and the war in Ukraine and instead focused primarily on its libertarian economic policies, especially cutting taxes and benefits. That has seen the party rise rapidly in the polls, where it is now third with support of around 13%.
The new study also finds that, when asked if the PiS government’s flagship child benefit policy, known as 500+, has improved the situation of children and young people, only 21% agreed.
Average monthly support in polls for Poland’s main political groups (source ewybory.eu)
However, some of the other most popular policies among young Poles contradict Confederation’s stance: 41% see softening the abortion law as an ideal policy (whereas Confederation wants to toughen it); 35% picked improving public transport; and 32% significantly raising the minimum wage.
Meanwhile, only 10% picked limiting military aid to Ukraine (something Confederation has previously demanded), 5% restricting migration to Poland from Asia and Africa, and only 5% leaving the EU.
Moreover, while Confederation is strongly opposed to LGBT rights, 66% of the young Poles surveyed were in favour of allowing same-sex civil partnerships, with only 19% opposed. Almost as many, 60%, favoured introducing same-sex marriages and 55% the adoption of children by same-sex couples.
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Main image credit: Lukasz Cynalewski / Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
