Opposition Third Way coalition at a crossroads ahead of Poland’s elections

By Krzysztof Mularczyk

The Third Way (Trzecia Droga), an alliance of the centre-right Polish People’s Party (PSL) and centrist Poland 2050 (Polska 2050), was formed in late April with the aim of targeting voters unhappy with the main opposition party, Civic Platform (PO), and its drift towards the left.

However, things have not gone well for it since then, with the group seeing its average support in polls fall from 13% to around 10% and being overtaken as the third most popular group by the radical right Confederation (Konfederacja).

Middle of the road

In contrast to PO and the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, Third Way has declared that it does not want any more “helicopter cash” – expensive promises on social spending – before the election.

Whereas the two largest opposition groups, PO and The Left (Lewica), recently voted in favour of PiS’s proposal to raise universal child benefit by 60%, Third Way joined Confederation in opposing it.

Third Way is also targeting education, healthcare and the environment to differentiate its policy offer from the other main blocs. It promises to spend 6% of GDP on education to ensure that all school students have at least one hour per day of English language teaching, that there is a psychologist in every school, and free school meals.

Third Way proposes to guarantee access to a specialist doctor within 60 days or else the public purse has to pay for a private appointment. On the environment, it has promised to tax the profits of energy companies and spend the proceeds on developing renewable sources of energy as well as to guarantee savings in costs for those willing to invest in their own sources of energy, such as photovoltaics.

The alliance has not said much about security issues. It broadly supports the government’s policies with regard to the war in Ukraine and is not opposed to increasing defence spending. PSL has also gone on record as opposing the EU migration pact and has been broadly supportive of the government with regard to the issue of securing the border with Belarus against illegal migrant crossings.

PSL and Poland 2050 have proposed to resolve the dispute on abortion by holding a national referendum. However, PSL have gone on record as saying it would oppose abortion on demand whereas Poland 2050 party has not said what position it would adopt should such a referendum take place. Both parties oppose same-sex marriage but would be inclined to support civil partnerships.

When it comes to judicial reform, Poland’s relations with EU institutions, and decentralisation of power to local government, the two parties are united with PO and The Left in opposing the PiS government.

Poland 2050 party is actually a member of the Eurofederalist Renew Europe grouping in the European Parliament and is the only major political party that has declared itself to be in favour of Poland’s speedy accession into the eurozone.

Failing to cut through

But Third Way is finding it hard to get its message across. Back in May, the alliance enjoyed poll ratings of around 13%. Today they are below 10% and there are fears the coalition could fall below the 8% threshold of votes needed to enter parliament.

Average monthly support in polls for Poland’s main political groups. Third Way (Trzecia Droga) currently sit fourth with just over 10%. (Source: ewybory.eu)

Piotr Zgorzelski of PSL, a deputy speaker of the parliament, recently admitted that his party has no wish to commit suicide and, if poll ratings dip any further, may invite Poland 2050 to stand on PSL’s electoral lists and scrap the idea of an electoral coalition. For single-party lists, the vote threshold to enter parliament is only 5%.

There are also politicians in both parties, such as Jarosław Kalinowski, a former PSL leader, who have argued for a wider joint opposition list made up of PO, PSL, Poland 2050 and The Left.

A large part of the problem for Third Way has been the fact that PO has outmanoeuvred it in recent weeks, with Donald Tusk’s party seeing its support rise in line with Third Way’s decline.

The events that took place around the proposed commission to examine Russian influence enraged PO supporters and helped them swell numbers at a mass demonstration in Warsaw.

While PSL and Poland 2050 were initially lukewarm towards the event, they eventually felt they had to attend. But their leaders were sidelines during the march, which served to demonstrate PO’s strength and project Tusk as the real leader of the opposition.

The contradictions

Another problem is that the alliance between the PSL and Poland 2050 seems to have been a marriage of convenience rather than a genuine meeting of soulmates. PSL is a party of rural areas and small towns whereas Poland 2050 appears to be stronger in cities.

While on one hand that gives them a potentially large voter base, it creates contradictions within their messaging aimed at different audiences, with Poland 2050’s electorate leaning further towards the left on some environmental and social issues and PSL voters being more conservative.

Meanwhile, the two partners also have very different images. PSL is Poland’s oldest political party with a reputation for being very elastic when it comes to forming coalitions. Poland 2050 – formed by former TV presenter Szymon Hołownia in 2021 – has built its image on being fresh and rejecting old politics.

However, the real problem for Third Way is that it is finding it very hard to differentiate itself from PO and to convince voters that it really offers an alternative to both the main opposition party and the ruling PiS.

It had hoped that its opposition to PO’s stance of supporting the social transfers PiS has introduced and PO policies such as 20% pay increases for the public sector and 0% interest-rate mortgages for first-time buyers would appeal to middle-class voters.

It had also hoped to make inroads into the PiS vote as the more moderate conservative choice. But it seems to have made no difference.

Are they really a “third way”?

Moreover, even the idea of being a “third way” fails to hold up to much scrutiny given that the alliance has made clear it is part of the opposition to PiS and would seek a coalition government with the likes of PO and The Left after this autumn’s elections.

In that way, they make it hard to appeal to voters who have objections to some of the PiS agenda but who do not want to see PO in government.

It appears that many such voters, including parts of the middle-class electorate opposed to increases in social spending, have been drawn to Confederation, which presents itself as a genuine alternative to both PiS and the mainstream opposition but willing to work with either as long as they commit to market-oriented reforms, do not pursue a cultural revolution, and resist attempts to turn the EU into a federal superstate.

The radical-right party has seen its support rise from 6-7% at the start of the year to over 13% today.

The summer will now be make or break for the Third Way. If poll ratings do not improve, or at least stabilise, they face a real struggle to make it into the next parliament. That is likely to force the alliance to either take on a different form or admit defeat and join a larger coalition with other opposition groups.

Krzysztof Mularczyk worked for four years for TVP’s English language service. Previously he has held executive positions in civil society organisations and in the UN system.

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Main image credit: Kuba Atys / Agencja Wyborcza.pl