“Just the start of a bigger crisis”: Polish PM visits Baltic counterparts to discuss Belarus border

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki this weekend visited neighbouring Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to discuss solidarity measures to deal with the migrant crisis which has in past weeks escalated on the country’s borders with Belarus. He plans to meet the head of the OECD today.

The leaders warned that the situation was not yet resolved, despite a drop in the number of migrants coming to Minsk, pushing for further sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Belarus. They also highlighted the growing risks of further crises of military build-up and energy concerns to compound the migrant situation.

Morawiecki said that the “hybrid war against the EU,” in which Belarus is accused of sending tens of thousands of migrants to the bloc’s eastern borders and abetting forceful attempts to cross, was the “greatest attempt to destabilise Europe in 30 years”.

He visited the Baltic states – Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia – which in recent months have all seen surges of migrants seeking to illegally cross their borders, resulting in bolstered defences and plans for sturdy border walls.

Poland’s border guard said there had been 346 attempts to cross illegally into the country from Belarus on Sunday – adding to a total of 35,400 this year – as well as a push by some 150 “aggressive foreigners” overnight.

Starting with a meeting in Tallinn on Sunday, Morawiecki met with his Estonian counterpart Kaja Kallas, who said they saw “no signs of improvement” regarding the “hybrid attack”.

She called for sanctions – which European leaders agreed to extend last week, with a blacklist of Belarusian individuals and entities currently being drawn up – and continued “diplomatic pressure”.

Morawiecki said that Poland was prepared to escalate its response, after closing the Kuźnica Białostocka border crossing two weeks ago when thousands of migrants were reportedly escorted by Belarusians to the area. He said Poland was ready to close subsequent crossings and seal off “transit and trade opportunities in order to exert economic pressure on the Lukashenko regime”.

The Polish prime minister also visited Vilnius and Riga. “Although we see some positive signs in the return of migrants to their countries of origin, the attack organised by the Minsk regime is, unfortunately, still continuing,” said Lithuania’s Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, calling for pressure and sanctions on Belarus.

Šimonytė expressed solidarity with Poland, which she said was “currently experiencing the greatest burden”. Lithuania has reportedly been looking for means to sue the Lukashenko regime for crimes against the migrants at the International Court of Justice.

Poland’s leader said that there were now fewer migrants flying into Minsk as a result of talks between his government and the prime ministers of Iraq and the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, as well other Middle Eastern leaders.

He warned, however, of Belarusian attempts to “exploit the crisis” in Afghanistan to continue migrant flows. “Unfortunately it is probably just the start of a longer crisis,” he said.

In a final visit on Thursday, Morawiecki met with his Latvian counterpart Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš. “The resolute resistance of Poland and the Baltic states resulted in the slowing down of certain actions by the Belarusian regime,” said Poland’s premier.

Morawiecki reiterated a message also voiced in Tallinn and Vilnius, that there were “several growing crises” in parallel. He said that the first was a political crisis in which Lukashenko was “using people from the Middle East as human shields”.

He also noted the build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, as well as along the Russian-Belarusian frontier and in the Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania. “This presence is an instrument of pressure, but at the same time an instrument that can be used directly in a direct attack,” he said.

Finally, he noted an “energy crisis caused by Gazprom,” which he said was also pushing Russian interests through the near-completed Nord Stream 2 project with Germany, which Poland has spoken out against. He said the west’s focus should be on “fighting fake news, hacker attacks, digital crimes, which are so often used by the Kremlin”.

“If the Belarusian regime believed that it would destabilise or divide Europe, it has been very disappointed,” said Kariņš. “Europe has become more united and consolidated.”

On Monday, Morawiecki will meet the secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Mathias Cormann. “There is still time to avoid catastrophe,” he wrote on Twitter, following the weekend’s meetings.

Main image credit: Office of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania/Laima Penek/Press materials shared with Notes from Poland

Maria Wilczek

Maria Wilczek is deputy editor of Notes from Poland. She is a regular writer for The Times, The Economist and Al Jazeera English, and has also featured in Foreign Policy, Politico Europe, The Spectator and Gazeta Wyborcza.