Polling polarised Poles: what government and opposition voters think of each other

By Adam Traczyk

Since 2015, Poland has been the focus of a global debate over populism and the resilience of liberal democracy, as the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party has set about dismantling the country’s system of checks and balances.

The result has been a tough test for Poland’s young democratic order. Once seen as a model of democratic transformation, the country has rapidly plunged in several international democracy rankings.

However, PiS argues that they are, in fact, restoring democracy, which it claims was never fully established after 1989 due to a deal between parts of the communist regime and its opponents which kept them jointly in power under a democratic façade.

But what does the Polish society think of its own democracy? This is not an abstract question, but rather one that Poles are currently wrestling with – in parliament but also on the streets – given the revolutionary zeal with which PiS has sought to modify state institutions and the reactions those efforts have triggered.

To find some answers, More in Common, an international initiative committed to building inclusive and resilient democratic societies, surveyed more than 2,000 people in Poland and conducted focus groups in order to gain a better understanding of people’s different attitudes, expectations, and experiences with regard to democracy. Here are the most important takeaways.

Most want democracy – but disagree on what it means

Our data show that Polish society is not in the process of turning its back on democracy itself. We found a clear acceptance of democratic principles such as freedom of speech and equal rights for minorities. Almost all Poles also agree that democracy is the best form of government.

Despite the much-discussed radical polarisation of Polish society, the results of our survey did not reveal significant differences in values when it comes to fundamental views of democracy. But Poles do not necessarily agree on how these characteristics should be implemented in practice and thus how democracy should be actually lived.

To ensure social cohesion in a pluralistic society, it is essential that members of that society tolerate differences of opinion. In theory, this is a view shared by 86% of Poles, who are convinced that it is important for the good of the country to be able to live together despite holding competing views.

However, there are contradicting notions in Polish society of how those differences should be approached. Poles are evenly split on the question of whether politics is about reconciling different opinions or first and foremost about enforcing the will of the majority.

The collected data suggest a deeply divided society that has a hard time accepting compromise and has limited tolerance for those who hold different views. Fully 40% of Poles believe that people who hold different views than their own are acting in ways disadvantageous to Poland.

Poland, it becomes apparent, is home to deep distrust and strong mutual antipathy between those holding competing political views. Majorities among individual party electorates mutually do not feel respect for each other.

Supporters of other parties do not deserve respect

Asked whether supporters of different parties – based solely on their political views – deserve respect, only supporters of one party – Poland 2050 (Polska 2050), the centrist movement recently founded by Szymon Hołownia, a political newcomer who finished third in the 2020 presidential election – produced more positive than negative answers.

Interestingly, our data show that opinions of PiS voters held by opposition-party supporters tend to be more negative than vice versa. Among those who favour the centrist Civic Platform (PO), the largest opposition party, 58% believe that PiS supporters, when judged solely based on their political views, deserve no respect.

For Poland 2050, the figure is 51% and for The Left (Lewica) it is 43%. Supporters of PiS are less negative towards their political opponents, with “only” 33% saying that PO voters deserve no respect. For Poland 2050 and The Left, that value is 24% and 26%, respectively.

This increased aversion on the part of opposition supporters may stem from frustration that it is the rivals who are in power, but also from contempt for those lower down the social ladder. Meanwhile, many PiS voters hope to climb this very ladder, and by moving upwards, they want to enter a space hitherto reserved for the liberal electorate. Aspiring to its way of life might therefore suppress the resentment.

MPs serve foreign interests

These attitudes intensify when combined with the negative view of politicians and put an even greater strain on the mistrustful relationship between politics and citizens.

Two thirds of those surveyed reject the idea that, despite differences of opinion, most politicians could be described as patriots who have the good of Poland at heart. Once again, opposition supporters seem to be more critical of their political opponents, as this view is shared by three quarters of PO’s, Poland 2050’s and The Left’s electorate, and more than 80% of voters for the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja).

Similarly, a clear majority of 60% also believe that parliament includes deputies who pursue foreign rather than national interests. In this case, it is the supporters of the right-wing parties PiS and Confederation who are most likely to doubt politicians’ good intentions. Two thirds of the ruling party’s voters believe that certain members of parliament serve foreign interests. Three quarters of Confederation voters hold a similar view.

Poles feel disempowered

Such levels of mistrust are harmful enough for a democracy, but our survey paints an even darker picture. Even though political power in a democracy is to be held by the people, a large share of the Polish population feels rather disempowered. Only a third feel that they have an influence over what happens in the country. Less than a tenth strongly believe so.

The root cause might be the fact that the Polish political system very strongly adheres to the principle of “winner takes all”. It provides supporters of opposition parties insufficient opportunities to feel as though they are part of political life in between elections. This was the case even before PiS came to power, but the situation has become much more severe since 2015.

Today, only among PiS supporters does a majority believe that their voice is actually heard by political leaders (51% versus 21%, who believe the opposite). Among supporters of opposition parties, depending on the party, a plurality or an absolute majority feels like they have no political influence. This is nothing less than a depiction of a political anti-community.

Most think democracy is in danger

The assessment of one’s own agency is not the only aspect where political party allegiance plays a decisive role in evaluating the political reality. The similarity of attitudes toward the normative concept of democracy might lead one to expect that positive and negative views of democracy as it currently exists in Poland would be somewhat evenly distributed throughout the population.

But whereas 96% of voters for PO, 91% of voters for The Left, 86% of voters for Poland 2050, and even 60% of voters for Confederation believe that democracy in Poland is in danger, only 19% percent of those who support the governing PiS party agree.

Of course, the issue of democracy and rule of law has been highly politicised in recent years, which surely has affected the results. But political polarisation can also be seen in other – more objective – aspects of life. Some 63% of PiS voters are satisfied with the state of Polandʼs economy. Supporters of opposition parties, by contrast, are far more critical of the economic situation and an average of just under 80% of them are dissatisfied.

At the same time, in their self-assessments, voters we identified as liberal democrats are extremely supportive of the idea of a welfare state and consider it a crucial part of democratic order, but for the most part see the “500 plus” child benefit programme introduced by the PiS government as being harmful to democracy in Poland.

Therefore, it seems fair to say that the evaluation of political realities largely takes place through the lens of party affiliation and that this lens overshadows or even replaces a personʼs own critical judgement. This clearly demonstrates the power of political narratives. Such narratives lend structure to political perceptions and offer guidelines and reference points that help people combine separate elements of political reality into a coherent image.

While Polish political elites have developed powerful and at the same time extremely divisive narratives, neither Polish society nor political leaders have developed effective “reconciliation mechanisms” to overcome comparatively minor rifts and keep the society together.

As such, it is even more regrettable that – as we found – half of Poles seek to avoid personal debates with those holding contradictory political views. In doing so, many Poles may unknowingly be exacerbating the problem. After all, contact with those who think differently is essential for dismantling preconceived notions. A successful democracy lives from competing opinions and heated debate – but arguing must also be learned.

In recent weeks, Poland has witnessed two opposing trends. On the one hand, Donald Tusk’s return to Polish politics has raised hopes in the ranks of the liberal part of the opposition. On the other hand, the government has accelerated and intensified its efforts to limit media freedom, following the path set by the authoritarian leaders of Hungary and Turkey. The outcome of this clash remains open.

What is certain, however, is that it will reinforce political polarisation in Poland. Perhaps this is the price the Polish society must pay to halt the drift towards authoritarianism. But in the long run it will be necessary to ensure that the political community is rebuilt. Otherwise Poland will time and again become the prey of one tribe or another.

Main image credit: Jakub Wlodek / Agencja Gazeta

Adam Traczyk Adam Traczyk is co-founder of Global.Lab, a progressive think tank based in Warsaw, associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, and researcher at More in Common.