Poland main parliamentary opposition, Civic Coalition (KO), has unveiled its plan to push the government to announce a state of natural disaster and hence postpone next month’s presidential election for a year.
Opposition leader Borys Budka claims that he can muster a parliamentary majority behind his proposal by gaining the support of one of the ruling party’s junior coalition partners, with whom Budka met today.
Meanwhile, independent candidate Szymon Hołownia has launched an initiative for citizens to petition the government to do the same. He is also suing the state for denying him his electoral rights to a fair campaign amid the coronavirus lockdown.
Up to now, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has insisted that May’s elections, which will give a five-year term as president to the winner, should go ahead. It has, however, proposed that voting be conducted entirely by post, to mitigate the risk of worsening the epidemic.
A bill to that effect was passed two weeks ago by the lower-house Sejm and is now in front of the opposition-controlled upper-house Senate, which can delay it for up to 30 days but not prevent its passage.
All opposition candidates have called for the election to be postponed, arguing that holding it amid the epidemic – even by post – would constitute a threat to public health. They also claim that the current crisis unfairly advantages the incumbent (and PiS ally) Andrzej Duda, who remains in the public eye while his rivals have effectively had to stop campaigning.
Critics have also argued that moving to universal postal voting so soon before the election would be both logistically difficult and legally questionable, as the Constitutional Tribunal has previously ruled that significant changes to the electoral code must be made at least six months before an election.
Surveys continues to show that a large majority of the public want the elections to be delayed. New polling conducted by the University of Social Sciences and Humanities (SWPS) in Warsaw found that 80% think holding the elections would be “a big mistake”, while only 11% support it going ahead.
The opposition’s plan
Boris Budka, the leader of Civic Platform, which is the largest element of KO, has now proposed an alternative solution. Under his proposal, Duda’s term would be extended for a year, with elections delayed until May 2021.
Duda would be permitted to stand in those elections, in contrast to an alternative proposal put forward by the leader of one of PiS’s coalition partners, Jarosław Gowin. Gowin’s plan, which PiS has submitted to parliament as an alternative to postal elections next month, would extend Duda’s term by two years but then preclude him from running again.
Moreover, unlike Gowin’s plan, which would entail changing the constitution to allow elections to be postponed and the president’s term to be extended, Budka’s proposal would instead require the government to declare an official state of national disaster, a solution outlined in the current constitution.
Such a state, which is implemented for 30 days at a time, automatically delays elections until at least 90 days it has been revoked. The opposition has proposed that the elections be moved to 16 May 2021, which according to Budka would “guarantee that they are conducted in a fair and safe manner,” reports Gazeta Wyborcza.
Poland’s government has, however, repeatedly rejected calls to impose a state of natural disaster. It argues that such a measure is unnecessary, unjustified and would also require the state to make crippling compensation payments.
In response to the latter concern, the opposition’s plan proposes reducing government compensation due under a state of natural disaster, for example by limiting pay-outs to companies which do not pay their taxes in Poland.
The opposition also proposes holding the election with a “mixed ballot” allowing for both postal and in-person voting. Budka did not rule out online voting, but said that the relevant infrastructure would have to be implemented and proven by next year, reports Gazeta Wyborcza.
Asked how he would persuade the PiS party leader to postpone the elections, Budka said: “Jarosław Kaczyński knows that a president lacking legitimacy is a big problem. Both for him, and for Poland. The elections could be annulled.”
Budka also alluded to the fact that PiS’s ability to push its postal election through parliament is far from certain, as Gowin, who quit the government in protest over the May elections, could potentially ally with the opposition. “We can have a parliamentary majority without Kaczyński,” claimed Budka.
The PiS-led ruling camp currently has 235 MPs, just above the 231 required for a majority. But were Gowin and some of the 18 MPs from his Agreement (Porozumienie) party to rebel, that could shift the balance.
“Gowin clearly stated that elections cannot be held in May from both a medical and a safety standpoint,” said Budka. “I have already had one meeting with Jarosław Gowin, and so I know that everything is possible.”
Budka held a further meeting with Gowin in parliament today, at which he presented his plan. “We are optimistic and found a lot a of common ground,” claimed Budka afterwards, quoted by Wirtualna Polska. “We agree that elections should not be conducted by the postal service.”
Meanwhile, the opposition-ruled Senate, which has until 5 May to deliberate on the government’s bill to introduce a universal postal vote, is reportedly working on a proposal for the election to be held online. The amendments include the option of postal voting for the “digitally excluded”.
Independent presidential candidate Szymon Hołownia has launched an initiative, “Uwolnić Wybory” (Free The Elections), encouraging citizens to petition the government to introduce the official state of natural disaster needed to postpone the May elections.
On Friday he also announced that he is suing the Polish state for denying him his electoral rights because he has been unable to campaign fully during the official election period, which began in early February, thereby making the vote unfair.
Independent presidential candidate @szymon_holownia is suing the Polish state for denying him his electoral rights because he has been unable to campaign fully during the official period leading up to elections on 10 May, thereby making the vote unfair https://t.co/1XsfcwIScd
— Notes from Poland ?? (@notesfrompoland) April 18, 2020
The main opposition candidate, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, has sent mixed messages regarding whether she will continue her campaign and stand in the election or not. While initially calling PiS’s decision to push for elections “criminal” and asking her supporters to boycott the vote, she is now to relaunch her campaign, reports Onet.
Main image credits: Platforma Obywatelska RP/Flickr (under public domain)
Maria Wilczek is deputy editor of Notes from Poland. She is a regular writer for The Times, The Economist and Al Jazeera English, and has also featured in Foreign Policy, Politico Europe, The Spectator and Gazeta Wyborcza.
