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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has warned that, according to intelligence sources, Russia is planning drone and missile strikes on eastern NATO countries, which it would present as accidental.
Addressing parliament on Thursday, the prime minister said that “citizens absolutely have the right to know what scenario can be expected based on the information available today”. Intelligence from allies, including the United States and Ukraine, indicates that various scenarios are possible, but one is most likely, said Tusk.
Over the next few months, Russia’s recent tactic of using jet-powered drones to strike targets in Ukraine near the Polish border will likely continue, said Tusk, as well as attacks on Ukrainian economic and logistics infrastructure, such as railways.
“Russia’s plan, according to intelligence, also includes hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” continued Tusk. “These possibilities have been discussed for some time. This information is now very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing.”
💬 Premier @donaldtusk ⤵️
Istnieje realne ryzyko, że na teren któregoś z państw NATO mogą wlatywać drony, dokonywać zniszczeń. I te „przypadkowe” według Rosji uderzenia mogą się powtarzać. pic.twitter.com/bScJBjQQF1— Kancelaria Premiera (@PremierRP) September 17, 2026
The aim, said Tusk, would be to “weaken NATO member states’ motivation to apply appropriate NATO regulations in the event of aggression against any member state”. Russia’s “official narrative will be that this is an accident and there’s no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response”.
The prime minister said that the incidents could be similar in nature to the night one year ago when around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace across its eastern border.
“These ‘random’ attacks could repeat themselves, becoming an increasingly glaring illustration of NATO’s helplessness, as conceived by the Russians,” said Tusk.
In response to last year’s drone incursions, Polish and allied NATO jets shot down some of the drones. Poland then invoked article 4 of the NATO treaty and received increased air-defence support from a number of NATO allies.
Russia has recently stepped up its attacks on western Ukraine, including a number of strikes close to the Polish border. Tusk noted that, in response, Poland has begun reinforcing security at border crossings, including installing 28 new bomb shelters and expanding air-defence systems
The prime minister also confirmed that he would be travelling to Kyiv later on Thursday. He planned, among other things, to discuss with President Volodymy Zelensky how they would cooperate on air defence and utilise Ukraine’s experience and capabilities in this area.
On the night of Thursday to Friday, the latest round of Russia attacks on Ukraine prompted Poland to scramble aircraft, activate air-defence systems, and close parts of its eastern airspace – actions that have recently become increasingly common.
A drone has struck a passenger train travelling between Kyiv and Warsaw, around 2 km from the Polish border, amid the latest mass Russian attacks on Ukraine.
Separately, a truck around 800 metres from a border crossing with Poland was also hit last night https://t.co/ZbfE2iDLOk
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) September 13, 2026
In his remarks to parliament, Tusk also noted that “announcements by some global leaders that Russia is ready for a kind of ceasefire…have not come true”. He then mentioned President Donald Trump directly.
“Since the president of the United States announced that Russia had assured him it was ready to honour such a partial ceasefire with Ukraine, numerous attacks have occurred, including on energy infrastructure in Ukraine,” said Tusk.
“The information we have received regarding the course of consultations and talks at various levels between the US and Russia is quite clear: Russia is not ready for any serious talks on a ceasefire, let alone peace, without Ukraine’s de facto surrender.”
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Main image credit: KPRM/Flickr (under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
