The early elections that everyone is speculating about but no one wants

By Marcin Makowski

The beginning of the year in Polish politics is gossip season. The latest round of rumours is about early elections, amid talk that Jarosław Kaczyński has lost patience with coalition partner Zbigniew Ziobro, whose reforms as justice minister have led the EU to withhold funds from Poland. While potential elections in June are being whispered about in the corridors of parliament, no one – either in the ruling party or the opposition – actually wants them. For a few simple reasons.

If I had a zloty for every time in the six years of the United Right (Zjednoczona Prawica) coalition’s rule that I had heard about early elections lurking around the corner, I could go to Zanzibar on holiday today and not worry about the speculation, which is of real value mainly for media outlets suffering a shortage of stories to cover at the turn of the year.

And yet the rumour keeps coming back, this time in the form of possible elections in June 2022 (more than a year ahead of the constitutionally scheduled date of autumn 2023). This has supposedly caused panic among the politicians of United Poland (Solidarna Polska) – a hardline junior partner in the ruling coalition – who heard that politicians from Law and Justice (PiS), the main ruling party, have already started to book advertising boards for May.

After all, it is no secret that United Poland and its leader, Zbigniew Ziobro, have for a long time been regarded – especially in the milieu of PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki – to be the embodiment of all the ills that have befallen the government, and for which PiS – allegedly – is not responsible.

In the litany of the coalition’s mistakes, United Poland is seen to have been behind many of the most serious: the attempt to amend the Act on the Institute of National Remembrance (often referred to internationally as the “Holocaust Law”), which ended with an international dispute with the US and Israel; unsuccessful reform of the judiciary; controversy over Pegasus spyware; and – most importantly – a legal and financial confrontation with Brussels.

It is the latter issue that could persuade PiS chairman Jarosław Kaczyński to choose the option of snap elections –  even at the cost of a resultant minority government.

After all, with the hard “no” of United Poland in the face of the conditions that the European Commission has set for Poland to unlock billions of euros in Covid recovery funds, it is not possible to get the money quickly. That money, in turn, is the key to the functioning of the “Polish Deal”, the government’s flagship financial project.

Where does United Poland’s resistance come from? From the simple conclusion that what is good for PiS does not have to be good for its partner, which, in order to survive, has to stand out from its larger ally.

After last year’s departure of another junior coalition partner – Jarosław Gowin’s Agreement (Porozumienie) – from the United Right, Kaczyński has become hostage to an increasingly toxic alliance with Ziobro, who is clearly building a base before the next elections, for which he will most likely have to start on his own, regardless of when they occur.

As it is impossible to compete with PiS on social policy, Ziobro has set his party on a “hard course” against the EU, emphasising Polish sovereignty and fighting the climate policy of Brussels. As a consequence, the “tail is wagging the dog”, in the words of Ryszard Terlecki, the head of PiS’s parliamentary caucus.

Why, then, are politicians increasingly talking about early elections? The answer is simple: even if they are not actually planning to hold them, this message alone mobilises party members – and disciplines a recalcitrant coalition partner. In reality, however, elections this summer would not be worthwhile for anyone – even the opposition.

“I am not sure if I should pray for early elections given the possible results,” opposition leader Donald Tusk recently told TVN24. The head of Civic Platform (PO) is aware that the unification of the opposition, necessary to take power, is still a pipe dream, and that, in pandemic conditions, the government has more tools to control public opinion.

His intuition is also confirmed by an IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita, which shows that 64% of the public believe that the opposition is not ready to take power at the moment, while only 25% think that it is.

At the same time, PiS figures acknowledge that an early election could lead to a situation even more unstable than its current shaky and wafer-thin parliamentary majority.

“A minority government is never a good solution,” party spokesman Radosław Fogiel told Polsat News. “It may be a temporary solution, but no one will deliberately try to establish a minority government.”

Risking a political reset when you still have a majority in the Sejm, and are having to deal with rising inflation and energy prices, is a suicidal idea from the perspective of PiS.

As history has shown – especially the early elections of 2007, called by PiS after problems with a junior coalition partner – nothing is impossible. Yet the result of those elections – PiS losing power and remaining out of government until 2015 – make a repeat even more unlikely.

Main image credit: Dawid Zuchowicz / Agencja Gazeta

Marcin Makowski

Marcin Makowski is a Head of News at Interia