Polish opposition group in turmoil amid record low support in polls

Problems have continued to mount over the last week for Poland’s largest opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), with a senior figure quitting and two MPs facing expulsion over criticism of the party’s leadership. Meanwhile, the Civic Coalition (KO) that PO dominates has fallen to record low support in polls.

In one published last week by United Surveys for RMF and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, KO – which also includes the liberal Modern (Nowoczesna) and the Greens (Zieloni) – recorded only 12.1% support, the lowest ever found by that pollster.

Another poll this week by CBOS showed support for KO dropping to 11% – also the lowest it has ever recorded. Those figures are well under half the vote share of 27.4% achieved by KO at the last parliamentary elections in 2019, when it maintained its position as the largest opposition group.

Both polls found the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party to be the most popular, with 33.5% and 32.6% support respectively. It was followed in second place by Poland 2050 (Polska 2050), a new centrist movement, with 21.9% and 17.1%.

Marcin Duma of United Surveys told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna that the drop in support for KO could be caused by voters “tiring” of its unconstructive “anti-PiS” approach. “The pandemic situation has created a greater appetite for dialogue,” he argued.

Earlier this month, when parliament had to ratifying implementation of the European Union’s €750 billion coronavirus recovery fund, KO, despite being pro-EU, urged the opposition not to vote in favour as a way to bring down the government. In the end, it was left isolated as most other parties backed the plan.

A separate Kantar poll published yesterday did, however, put KO in second place, with 21% support, behind PiS (33%) but ahead of Poland 2050 (17%)

On Monday, a leading PO figure, MEP Róża Thun, announced that she was quitting the party. She said the final straw had been its approach to the EU recovery fund vote, with no “serious debate” about strategy and a policy that risked preventing billions of euros from flowing to Poland and other member states.

PO needs to reach “a turning point”, otherwise “PiS will stay in power for who knows how many more terms,” warned Thun, quoted by the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

PO’s leader, Borys Budka, said it “was a pity” that “this voice was missing” during the party’s internal discussions ahead of the vote on the Covid fund. Thun responded that she “does not remember being invited”.

It has been rumoured that Thun will join Poland 2050, which earlier this year poached two lawmakers aligned with KO. Thun has, however, not yet made an announcement regarding her political future.

Separately, PO’s leadership last week chose to eject two MPs, Ireneusz Raś and Paweł Zalewski, from the party for “acting to its detriment” by “repeatedly questioning the decisions of the party’s authorities while not participating in debates” of collegial bodies, according to PO spokesman Jan Grabiec.

Both Raś and Zalewski had called for the party to pick a new leader to replace Budka, who polling shows is unpopular with voters. They were among 51 KO lawmakers who recently signed a letter warning that, without “far-reaching changes”, the party will never be able to win elections again.

The ousted pair have since appealed against the decision by the party’s national board to eject them. Raś claims that the mechanism used to oust them was supposed to be a “nuclear option” for serious misdemeanours, and that the decision had been “political”, reports Wirtualna Polska.

Zalewski said that the leadership of Budka is “immature” and has left the party in “deep crisis”. Budka, who had put forward the motion to dismiss the two MPs, responded by saying that they were “putting on a spectacle” by appealing.

PO led Poland’s government from 2007 to 2015, under the leadership of Donald Tusk for most of that period. However, since then it has lost six elections – parliamentary, presidential, European and local – in a row to PiS.

In February, Budka unveiled a strategy aimed at uniting all opposition groups from left to centre-right in a coalition to oust PiS. But it was met with a lukewarm reception from potential partners.

A glimmer of hope was offered last year by the energetic campaign of KO’s candidate for the presidency, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. But the subsequent launch of his new “social movement” was repeatedly delayed and it has since achieved little visibility.

“This is a very difficult time for PO,” admitted Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, a deputy speaker of the Sejm, who was KO’s initial presidential candidate last year before being replaced by Trzaskowski following a lacklustre campaign.

She noted that Thun’s decision had “surprised” and “worried” her. But she added that “sometimes such a difficult moment is needed” to “show a new quality”, which she said her colleagues were “aggressively” pursuing.

The problems for KO have been made more urgent by the rumoured prospect of early elections amid tensions between PiS and its two coalition partners, one of whom, United Poland (Solidarna Polska), rebelled by voting against ratification of the EU Covid fund.

However, the three ruling parties put on a show of unity over the weekend to launch a major spending and tax reform programme, which is widely seen as groundwork ahead of the next elections.

Maria Wilczek

Maria Wilczek is deputy editor of Notes from Poland. She is a regular writer for The Times, The Economist and Al Jazeera English, and has also featured in Foreign Policy, Politico Europe, The Spectator and Gazeta Wyborcza.