Poland’s public debt tops 2 trillion zloty for first time

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland’s public debt exceeded 2 trillion zloty (€466 billion) for the first time in 2024, fuelled by a surge in borrowing that also pushed the general government deficit to 6.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), data from Statistics Poland (GUS), a state agency, show.

The nominal debt rose by over 320 billion zloty year-on-year – the highest increase on record. In relative terms, debt grew by 19%, marking the second-fastest annual rise after a 28% spike in 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Last year’s rise was primarily driven by increased spending on defence and infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, Poland’s nominal GDP reached a record 3.64 trillion zloty in 2024.

Total public debt stood at 2.01 trillion zloty, or 55.3% of GDP, up from 49.5% a year earlier, according to GUS, which compiles its data in line with EU methodology. Comparable figures go back to 2004, when Poland joined the European Union.

The general government deficit reached 239.8 billion zloty in 2024, equivalent to 6.6% of GDP. That was up from 5.3% of GDP the year before and the highest share since 2020, when it stood at 6.9%.

The debt-to-GDP ratio rose more sharply than anticipated. The finance ministry had forecast a ratio of 54.6% for 2024, with projections of 58.4% in 2025, 61.3% in 2027, and a slight decline to 61.2% in 2028.

The ministry had also expected a smaller deficit of 5.5%. In October, it presented a plan to reduce the shortfall below the EU’s 3% target by 2030.

Under EU fiscal rules, member states with a budget deficit above 3% of GDP or public debt exceeding 60% risk entering an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).

However, in light of increased defence spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and calls from US President Donald Trump for NATO countries to raise military spending to 5% of GDP – the European Commission is considering allowing defence-related expenditure to be excluded from these calculations.

“The fiscal sphere remains far from balanced, largely due to necessary expenditure incurred on defence and infrastructure investment, among others,” PKO BP analysts wrote on Tuesday morning, before the publication of the GUS data, quoted by broadcaster TVN.

According to new Eurostat data, also released on Tuesday, Poland recorded the second-highest deficit in the EU in 2024, behind only Romania, which posted a figure of 9.3% of GDP. France and Slovakia followed, with deficits of 5.8% and 5.3% respectively. The EU average was 3.1%.

In total, 12 member states ran deficits equal to or above the 3% threshold. Six countries reported budget surpluses, with Denmark recording the highest at 4.5% of GDP.

In terms of public debt, Poland remained well below the EU average, which stood at 81% of GDP last year. Twelve member states exceeded the 60% debt threshold, with Greece holding the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 153.6%. Estonia reported the lowest ratio, at just 23.6%.

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Ministerstwo Finansów (under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 PL)

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.