An exit poll after today’s national referendum, which was held simultaneously with parliamentary elections, suggests that not enough people voted for it to be valid.
That would be a blow to the government, which called the referendum and included questions on the EU’s migration policies, among other issues. The exit poll for the elections also indicates that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has lost power.
Whereas turnout for the elections was a record high of 72.9%, according to pollster Ipsos, for the referendum it was only 40%. For a referendum to be binding, the figure must be above 50%. The official results are expected to be confirmed by Tuesday at the latest.
The holding of a referendum today was extremely controversial. PiS argued that it would allow Polish society to give a definitive – and binding – answer to important questions.
The opposition and many experts, however, accused PiS of using the referendum as a means of mobilising its voters for the election. They noted that the topics it chose for the four questions were not designed to offer genuine policy choices but instead to support PiS’s attacks on the opposition.
Many, including the previous head of the electoral committee, called on Poles to boycott the referendum by stating, when they arrived at polling stations, that they wanted only ballot papers for the election. This, it was hoped would push turnout for the referendum below the 50% required for it to be binding.
Given the 33 percentage point difference in turnout between the elections and referendum, according to the exit poll, it appears that almost half of those voting today followed that suggestion.
During voting today, figures linked to PiS complained about reports that staff at some polling stations were asking voters whether they wanted ballot papers for the referendum. They suggested that this was an unlawful attempt to reduce turnout.
Following reports that some polling station staff have been asking voters if they want ballots for both the parliamentary election and referendum – which are taking place simultaneously – the electoral commission has declared that this should not be done https://t.co/S7GiSAg383
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) October 15, 2023
In the referendum, the first question asked: “Do you support the sale of state assets to foreign entities, leading to the loss of Poles’ control over strategic sectors of the economy?” Among those who voted, 97.5% chose “no” and 2.5% “yes”, according to the exit poll.
The second asked: “Do you support raising the retirement age, including restoring the increased retirement age of 67 for women and men?” Here, 96% voted “no” and 4% “yes”.
Third asked: “Do you support the elimination of the barrier on the border between Poland and Belarus?” Here, 97.8% answered “no” and 2.2% “yes”.
The fourth and final question asked: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”. Here, 98.6% voted “no” and 1.4% “yes”.
The exit poll was conducted at 900 randomly selected polling stations with a sample of around 90,000 people, far larger than normal opinion polls, which usually have a sample of around 1,000 respondents.
At the last parliamentary elections in 2019, the exit poll – also conducted by Ipsos – was very close to the official results, though that related only to parliamentary elections and not a referendum.
This year’s exit poll suggests that, although PiS won the higher number of votes in the election, it has not retained its parliamentary majority. The mainstream opposition, by contrast, appear to have won enough seats to form a new government.
The #exitpoll from Poland's elections indicates that, although the ruling party came first, it has lost its parliamentary majority and that an opposition coalition could form a government.
See our full report by clicking here ⬇️ https://t.co/zxk5axl6No
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) October 15, 2023
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Main image credit: Slawomir Kaminski / Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
