Ukrainian immigrants have “positive impact on Poland’s GDP and budget”, finds report

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Ukrainians pay more to the state budget in taxes than they receive in benefits, a report by the country’s National Development Bank (BGK) has concluded.

The research also indicated that Ukrainians – who number around 1.5 million, making them by far Poland’s largest immigrant group – contribute between 0.5% and 2.4% to Poland’s annual GDP growth.

The findings come amid renewed debate over Ukrainian immigrants during Poland’s ongoing presidential campaign, with one leading candidate claiming they receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes and others also calling for restrictions on benefits.

“The analyses conducted and the review of existing research indicate that the presence of migrants from Ukraine has a positive impact on Polish GDP, the labor market, and the budget situation,” write Mateusz Walewski, chief economist at BGK, which is state-owned bank tasked with supporting national development.

The bank’s study found that Ukrainians – who make up around 5% of workers – contributed around 15.1 billion zloty (€3.6 billion) to Poland’s state budget last year through taxes and social insurance contributions. Meanwhile, they received around 2.8 billion zloty from Poland’s main child benefit programme, known as “800+”.

“Although the ‘800+’ programme is not the only form of social support available to Ukrainian migrants, the data suggests they still contribute more to the Polish budget than they receive,” BGK added.

For example, notes the bank, in 2023 – when Poland was hosting more Ukrainian refugees than it is now – around 828 million zloty was budgeted for providing healthcare to Ukrainians through the state health fund.

“The balance of fiscal costs and benefits related to the influx of migrants from Ukraine to Poland seems to confirm the findings of previous academic studies that an influx of migrants generally has a positive or, in the worst case, neutral impact,” wrote BGK.

Indeed, the bank notes that Poland’s demographic situation – with an ageing, shrinking population – “suggests that Poland will need significantly more migrants in the coming years than the current number of Ukrainian citizens”.

“To maximise the positive impact of migration from Ukraine on the Polish economy, it is essential to encourage migrants to stay in Poland,” they added. In 2023, Poland’s Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) found that Poland needs to attract two million immigrant workers over the coming decade.

As well as their contribution to the labour market, Ukrainians also boost Poland’s GDP by increasing demand as consumers and trade with Ukraine, notes BGK. However, it adds that they also send money back to Ukraine, though such transfers “still have a relatively small scale”.

Poland has experienced levels of immigration in recent years that are unprecedented in the country’s history and among the highest in the European Union.

However, political sentiment has recently turned against migration, with the current government – a coalition ranging from left to centre-right led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk – recently outlining a tough new strategy to clamp down on migration and asylum.

During the current presidential campaign, Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate of the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja), has repeatedly claimed, despite evidence to the contrary, that Poland “spends much more on welfare for Ukrainians alone than they pay here in taxes”.

Another leading candidate, Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the opposition national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), has warned that Ukrainians are causing problems for the healthcare system and declared that they “should not live better in Poland than Poles”.

Meanwhile, the current front-runner, Rafał Trzaskowski of Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO), has called for the “800+” benefit to be given only to Ukrainian parents who are working.

BGK’s report did, however, find that the employment rate of Ukrainian refugees (between 53% and 71%) was lower than for economic migrants who came to Poland from Ukraine before the war (over 90%). By comparison, Poland’s overall employment rate is 56.9%.

“A large proportion of Ukrainian migrants still take up unskilled jobs, often below their education and skills,” wrote Walewski. He added that improving access to skilled employment, as well as education and training, would be crucial to ensuring Ukrainian migrants’ long-term economic contribution.

The study also dismissed claims that Ukrainian immigration has significantly driven up real estate prices in Poland.

“Although there was indeed a short-term increase in rental prices immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, in the long term, migration is not the main factor affecting the property market,” the authors wrote. “Ultimately, inflation and the availability of credit have a greater impact on prices.”

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Sylwia Penc / Agencja Wyborcza.pl

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.