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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Poland’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in February, with its purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading surpassing the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in nearly three years.
PMI is a key gauge of economic activity based on surveys of companies. A reading above 50 signals expansion while one below indicates contraction.
Poland’s PMI for the manufacturing sector rose to 50.6 in February, up from 48.8 in Janauary and the highest level seen since April 2022, just after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to S&P Global, which compiles the index, the increase was driven by growth in new orders, output, prices and employment.
“Beyond the headline PMI, its components showed further signs of recovering confidence,” said Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in a statement on Poland’s figures.
He pointed to a strong improvement in the 12-month outlook, the fastest rise in output prices in two years, and a decline in costs. He also noted that “companies increased headcounts for the fourth time in five months, suggesting they expect growth to solidify as spring approaches”.
Balchin added that the rise in Germany’s manufacturing PMI to a two-year high in February “provides further grounds for optimism”. Germany is the largest economy in Europe and Poland’s biggest export partner.
The recovery in Poland’s manufacturing sector aligns with a broader trend across Europe. While PMI readings in western European economies remain below 50, they have improved in recent months, suggesting a gradual rebound.
According to business news outlet Puls Biznesu, another factor supporting optimism in Europe is the prospect of increased fiscal stimulus, particularly in the defence sector.
Under pressure from the United States, European Union countries are considering significant investments in military production. Poland itself will allocate 4.7% of its GDP to defence this year, the highest relative level in NATO.
🚀 🇵🇱 przemysł w końcu wraca do wzrostów! Po 33 miesiącach w "strefie spadkowej", PMI w lutym wzrósł do 50,6 pkt. vs. 48,8 pkt. w styczniu. Nowe zamówienia i produkcja rosną, firmy zatrudniają, a prognozy są najlepsze od roku.
Wzrost jest jeszcze umiarkowany, a wraz z… pic.twitter.com/jVaIpuVu0p
— PKO Research (@PKO_Research) March 3, 2025
Analysts at PKO Bank noted that while “growth is still moderate” in the EU, there is hope for improvement as demand accelerates and companies raise prices. “This is a crucial milestone, and we hope the recovery will continue in the coming months,” they added.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk welcomed the data in a post on X: “So there we have it! For the first time in three years, PMI is above 50 points, meaning the recovery in Polish industry is becoming a reality! It sounds technical, but believe me, this is really good news.”
Poland’s economy last year grew by 2.9%, accelerating from near stagnation in 2023 and exceeding economists’ forecasts.
A więc mamy to! Po raz pierwszy od trzech lat PMI ponad 50 pkt, a więc ożywienie w polskim przemyśle staje się faktem! Brzmi technicznie, ale, wierzcie mi, to naprawdę dobra wiadomość.
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) March 3, 2025
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Main image credit: Josh Beech/Unsplash
Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.
