Poland’s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024, beating forecasts

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland’s economy grew by 2.9% in annual terms last year, accelerating sharply from the previous year’s near-stagnation and slightly exceeding economists’ forecasts.

Preliminary data from Statistics Poland (GUS), a state agency, showed that while the latest figure outpaced market expectations of 2.8%, it fell short of the government’s earlier target of 3.0-3.1% GDP growth.

The rebound followed a period of slow growth in 2023, when GDP expanded by just 0.1%. That was likely the result of a decline in household spending, driven by inflation after the Covid pandemic ended and amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The post-pandemic and war-related sluggishness, however, started to subside in the second half of 2023 and by the second quarter of 2024 Poland recorded the EU’s fastest annual and quarterly GDP growth.

According to analysts, the rebound was mainly driven by private consumption. “But its pace did not catch up with the marked growth in real household income,” wrote analysts from PKO Bank Polski. “Growth in consumer demand was constrained by the ongoing rebuilding of savings, supported by positive real interest rates.”

“In the current year, we expect growth to accelerate further: after savings are rebuilt, household attention will shift to consumption, a drop in interest rates and a new injection of EU funds can clearly support investment and revive domestic production,” they added.

The Polish government also remains optimistic about the country’s economic prospects for 2025, predicting stronger growth than in major global economies.

“According to the finance ministry’s internal forecasts, Poland’s economic growth in 2025 will reach 3.9%,” the ministry wrote on X. The projection is more optimistic than most market forecasts, with analysts surveyed by the Parkiet and Rzeczpospolita dailies expecting GDP to grow by 3.5% year-on-year.

“Thanks to rapidly growing investments, 2025 will be even better,” added finance minister Andrzej Domański.

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Jacek Dylag / Unsplash

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.