Over 350,000 Polish citizens have registered to vote abroad in next Sunday’s parliamentary elections. That is the highest-ever figure for such elections and is set to rise further ahead of the registration deadline on 10 October.
The surge in interest has led the foreign ministry to create more overseas polling stations, but there are still concerns that some will be overwhelmed on the day.
In previous elections, the majority of Poles abroad have voted for parties and candidates that are part of the current opposition to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, which is standing for an unprecedented third term in office.
New electoral rules require counts of overseas votes to be submitted up to 24 hours after polls close, a deadline that does not apply in Poland itself.
The human rights commissioner says that this is unconstitutional and may disenfranchise some voters https://t.co/Zy7mzaiTo8
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 19, 2023
On Friday, the foreign minister announced that 350,000 Polish citizens had so far registered to vote abroad. That is already more than the 314,000 who did so at the last parliamentary elections in 2019.
It remains behind the more than 385,000 who registered for the 2020 presidential elections. However, with voters able to register until Tuesday next week, it is possible that that record will be broken.
In response, the foreign ministry has created extra voting districts abroad. On Friday, it announced seven new ones in Spain, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy. That brought the worldwide total to 417, also a record and 30% more than in 2019.
❗️ Nowe obwody głosowania
✅ Ich łączna liczba wzrosła do 417 – to niemal o 100 więcej obwodów utworzonych za granicą w stosunku do wyborów parlamentarnych w 2019
🗳️ Za granicą dodatkowo zagłosujesz w Amsterdamie, Bredzie, Alicante, Maladze, Karlsruhe, Norymberdze i Mediolanie pic.twitter.com/4nQZ6ovB5m
— Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych RP 🇵🇱 (@MSZ_RP) October 6, 2023
A number of commentators, especially figures associated with the opposition, have expressed concern that overseas polling stations will struggle to count votes in time, resulting in many being invalidated.
On Wednesday, Aleksander Pociej, an election candidate for Civic Coalition (KO), the main opposition group, claimed that “over 40 electoral commissions are at risk of being unable to count votes”.
He did not provide evidence as to why those particular commissions, which he labelled on a map, are at such a risk. But earlier this year, Poland’s human rights commissioner warned that a new deadline for counting overseas votes violates the constitution and could disenfranchise Poles voting abroad.
Głosowanie naszych rodaków za granicą jest zagrożone❗️
Ponad 40 komisjom wyborczym na dzisiaj grozi niezmieszczenie się w czasie liczenia głosów, a rejestracja wyborców jeszcze się nie zakończyła.
Wzywam @MSZ_RP do natychmiastowego powołania komisji w zagrożonych lokalizacjach. pic.twitter.com/DBRxLRgRcd— Aleksander Pociej (@APociej) October 4, 2023
Paweł Żuchowski, the Washington correspondent for broadcaster RMF FM, yesterday posted images from the online registration system for overseas voters showing warnings that large queues are likely on election day at polling stations in the Netherlands and Sweden and advising people to vote elsewhere.
An email from the foreign ministry even suggested that Polish voters in the Netherlands could instead register to vote in neighbouring Germany or Belgium.
Żuchowski quoted an anonymous diplomat admitting: “We can’t handle it, we have too many voters, the red [warning] messages are intended to discourage people from signing up. It is clear that there are too few polling stations.”
W wielu miejscach na świecie komisje mają już tak dużo zarejestrowanych głosujących, że proszą ludzi o przepisanie się do innego lokalu. Nie tylko w danym okręgu ale nawet i kraju. Przykładem jest Holandia. Sugerują przepisanie się do Niemiec lub Belgii. Wiedzą, że będą… pic.twitter.com/cdZcChC9Zx
— Paweł Żuchowski (@p_zuchowski) October 6, 2023
At the last parliamentary elections in 2019, Poles abroad were much more likely to vote for the opposition than those in Poland itself.
Just under 39% of overseas voters chose KO while PiS came second with almost 25%. By contrast, in the overall election results (including votes cast in Poland and abroad) PiS won with 43.6% and KO was second with 27.4%.
In the first round of the 2020 presidential elections, KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski was the winner among overseas voters, with 48%, ahead of PiS-backed incumbent Andrzej Duda on 21%. However, among all voters, Duda won with 43.5% and Trzaskowski failed on 30.5%.
Poland’s main opposition wants to create a new state office to represent the interests of the Polish diaspora.
There are an estimated 20 million people of Polish ancestry outside Poland, equivalent to around half the population of the country itself https://t.co/WTZ8fCpept
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) September 19, 2023
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Main image credit: Mateusz Skwarczek / Agencja Gazeta
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
