Poland aims to produce three quarters of power from renewables and nuclear by 2040

Poland’s climate ministry has outlined plans for the country to generate around three quarters of its electricity from zero-emissions sources by 2040, with 51% coming from renewables and almost 23% from nuclear.

The Polish energy sector is currently one of Europe’s most polluting, relying on coal for around 70% of generation, by far the highest proportion in the EU.

But recent years have seen the previously coal-friendly government place greater emphasis on renewables and launch plans for Poland’s first nuclear power plants, as it seeks to achieve energy independence from Russian fossil fuels and to adapt to EU green policies.

Yesterday, the climate ministry announced an update to the government’s energy strategy, known as PEP2040.

“By 2040…zero-emission sources (renewables and nuclear) will account for approximately 74% of installed capacity and will cover approximately 73% of demand for electricity,” said the ministry.

Warsaw expects renewables to account for 47% of the energy mix by 2030. Two years ago, when the strategy was first presented, it assumed that only 23% of energy would come from renewables by that year.

By 2040, renewables would have a capacity of 88 GW, providing 51% of power. However, those figures include energy from biomass and biogas, which, though often treated by governments as zero-emission sources, are not accepted as such by some.

Onshore wind, which has a capacity of around 8 GW today, is expected to rise to 14 GW in 2030 and 20 GW by 2040. Offshore wind – which Poland is yet to launch – is anticipated to reach 5.9 GW by 2030 and 18 GW in 2040. The strategy update, however, does not mention specific goals for solar energy.

In 2021, renewables accounted for almost 17% of Poland’s energy mix, up from 7% in 2010. Last year saw a further expansion of Poland’s solar and wind capacity.

According to the updated strategy, by 2040 23% of electricity generation would come from nuclear. Poland has already picked the United States and South Korea to develop its first large-scale nuclear power plants. Private and state-owned firms are also developing plans for nuclear small modular reactors (SMRs).

“The outbreak of war in Ukraine has shown how important energy sovereignty is,” said climate minister Anna Moskwa while announcing the updated plans.

“The predictive analyses that were carried out in the context of these dramatic events made it clear which areas of Poland’s 2040 energy policy need to be strengthened so that the energy transition not only ensures the security of energy supplies, but also allows for the gradual decarbonisation of electricity generation.”

The minister added that, for Poland, energy sovereignty means “the use of diversified sources and its own raw materials, including the efficient use of domestic coal resources, the development of RES and nuclear power, and energy grids”.

This means that coal power cannot be phased out before nuclear become available, and the life of some coal-fired units will be extended by two to three years, said Moskwa.

Main image credit: Jeanne Menjoulet/Flickr (under CC BY 2.0)

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.