Around one million Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland, according to analysis of public data.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, Poland has been the primary destination for those fleeing the conflict. Around two thirds of the millions of people who escaped Ukraine crossed the Polish border. However, many then moved on to other countries while some have since returned to Ukraine.
The mobility of the refugees has made it difficult to be sure how many are in Poland at any time, as well as who they are and where they are located within the country.
According to the latest estimate by Maciej Duszczyk, a scholar at Warsaw University’s Centre of Migration Research, there are now around one million Ukrainians in Poland as refugees. That is down from the 1.5 million he estimated in May.
Duszczyk calculates that a further 1.2 million Ukrainians are currently in Poland with other (non-refugee) forms of residence status. Even before Russia’s invasion, Ukrainians were already Poland’s largest immigrant group.
Duszczyk’s figures are based on analysis of various employment, residence, health insurance, benefits and PESEL (personal identification number) databases, as well as border traffic figures.
In🇵🇱at the beginning of October, there were approximately 2.2-2.3 million Ukrainians.
1 Most of them on the basis of temporary protection about 1 mill (war refugees)
2. Temporary residence – access to the labour market approx. 850,000
3. Other residence statuses – approx. 380,000— Maciek Duszczyk (@MaciekDuszczyk) October 12, 2022
Bartosz Marczuk, the deputy president of the Polish Development Fund (PFR), a state-owned financial group, has come to similar conclusions from analysis of the PESEL database.
In March, the Polish authorities made it easier for Ukrainian refugees to receive a PESEL number, which is in turn necessary for obtaining various benefits and other rights, such as access to education and healthcare. Marczuk notes that a peak of around 1.4 million were registered in the system.
But, from October, refugees who have returned to Ukraine are removed from the PESEL database after 30 days, which now gives a “more realistic” number of 1.12 million registered in the system, says Marczuk.
Ważne zmiany dot. uchodźców z UKR
Ponieważ od X te osoby,które wróciły na UKR "znikają" z bazy PESEL po 30 dniach mamy realniejszy ogląd
Najważniejsze:
-w szczycie było 1,4 mln osób z UKR w PESEL, obecnie jest już 1,12 mln-ok.300k wróciło na UKR/wyjechało z PL@MaciekDuszczyk 1/4— Bartosz Marczuk (@BartoszMarczuk) October 13, 2022
Among the Ukrainian refugees with a PESEL, 91% are women (45%) and children (46%). Most men have been banned from leaving Ukraine during the war.
Around 345,000 are school-age children, but only 157,000 are registered as attending schools in Poland, notes Marczuk. Many of the remainder have remote Ukrainian teaching, but there is still “a problem with children outside the education system in Poland”, writes Marczuk.
He also notes that, among Ukrainian refugees of working age, around 70% are active on the labour market, with around 400,000 having found employment.
That latter figure – from the labour ministry – is also highlighted by Andrzej Kubisiak, deputy director of the Polish Economic Institute, a think tank, who says that the labour market “activation of refugees has exceeded expectations”.
Według ostatnich danych @MRiPS_GOV_PL ponad 400 tys. osób z Ukrainy znalazło pracę w Polsce po 24.02 na podstawie uproszczonych procedur.
Daje to wskaźnik zatrudnienia na koniec sierpnia sięgający niemal 60%.
5/6 pic.twitter.com/f3BnUZLFQs
— Andrzej Kubisiak (@KubisiakA) October 5, 2022
Main image credit: Jakub Orzechowski / Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
