The unemployment rate in Poland has dropped below 5% for the first time since 1990, when the country was beginning its post-communist transition. The figure fell to 4.9% last month after standing at 5.1% in May, new data from state statistical agency GUS show.
The number of unemployed people registered with labour offices was 818,000 in June, compared to 850,200 in the previous month.
Poland’s unemployment rate is also among the lowest in the European Union, with the latest Eurostat data for May showing that only the Czech Republic and Malta have lower levels.
While there are some signs pointing to a slowdown in demand for labour, shortages remain in a country that has been experiencing a dynamic bounce back from Covid-induced recession.
In response to yesterday’s release of data by GUS, the Polish Chamber of Commerce (KIG) announced that it expects unemployment – which is always lower in the summer months amid demand for seasonal workers – to bottom out at 4.8% between August and October.
However, June was also the third month in a row with negative growth in the number of job openings, analysts at PKO BP bank noted in a report today.
W #DziennikEkonomiczny opisujemy spadek stopy bezrobocia poniżej 5%, do najniższego poziomu od transformacji i wyjaśniamy dlaczego oczekujemy tylko niewielkiego jej wzrostu w najbliższych latach. Analizujemy też kolejne pogorszenie nastrojów (Ifo) w 🇩🇪 https://t.co/s4LFwOGU6W pic.twitter.com/PIaaLy33Sl
— PKO Research (@PKO_Research) July 26, 2022
At the same time, the number of newly registered job seekers increased by 11.3% year-on-year and its annual growth rate was positive for the fourth consecutive month, thanks in part to the registration of refugees from Ukraine, who represented about 7.5% of the newly unemployed in the first half of the year, according to GUS.
“However, even so, the number of unemployed per job offer, at 8.5, is close to historical lows,” wrote PKO’s analysts. “In our opinion, the demographic situation and the shrinking labour force will ensure that even the economic slowdown and falling demand for labour will not cause a noticeable increase in unemployment in Poland.”
An estimated 150,000 Ukrainian workers, mostly men, have left Poland since Russia's invasion of their homeland, as they return to support the war effort.
That has created labour shortages in Poland and other countries in the region, writes @Reuters https://t.co/uHwjTiAFEC
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) July 25, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated shortages in certain Polish industries, as large numbers of Ukrainian immigrants – mostly men – returned to help defend their homeland.
Meanwhile, the government has rushed to integrate refugees from Ukraine, including by relaxing requirements to enter the labour market, for example suspending the need to obtain a work permit and making it easier for certain qualifications to be recognised.
However, there remain concerns that the refugees – mostly women and children – will be unable to fill many of the gaps in the labour market, and also that some of their skills will be underutilised.
Main image credit: PxHere
Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.
