The Polish government is seeking Russia’s removal from the G20, with Poland taking its place. One minister claims the idea has been “very well received” by the United States, but experts warn that achieving unanimity among G20 members to remove Russia would be very difficult to achieve.
The G20 was founded in 1999 as a forum for most of the world’s largest economies. However, Poland’s GDP last year (over $655 billion according to IMF estimates) was significantly larger than those of South Africa ($415 billion) and Argentina ($455 billion), which have the smallest economies among G20 countries.
During a visit to Washington last week, Poland’s development minister, Piotr Nowak, told US Trade Representative Katherine Tai that there should be “no place for Russia in the G20” after it “violated the rules of international cooperation by attacking Ukraine”.
By contrast, “Poland deserves a place in the G20 as the second fastest developing country in the world in the last 30 years”, said Nowak.
Eventual membership of the group has been a longstanding aim for the government, with then foreign minister Jacek Czaputowicz saying in 2019 that it was a “long-term goal”.
2/2 Na miejsce w #G20 z całą odpowiedzialnością zasługuje Polska, jako drugi najszybciej rozwijający się kraj na świecie w ciągu ostatnich 30 lat – minister @PiotrNowak_PL podczas rozmowy z @AmbassadorTai.
— Ministerstwo Rozwoju i Technologii (@MRiTGOVPL) March 14, 2022
Speaking yesterday, Nowak said that “our proposal to remove Russia from the G20 group and replace it with Poland was met with great understanding by representatives of the American administration”.
“Gina Raimondo, the US secretary of commerce, declared that she would pass it on to President Joe Biden, and the idea was very well received,” added the development minister, quoted by the 300Gospodarka news service.
A US Department of Commerce spokesperson said that Raimondo had held a “good meeting” and “welcomed hearing Poland’s views on a number of topics, including the operation of the G20, but did not express a position on behalf of the US Government with respect to the Polish G20 proposal”, reports Reuters.
Nowak argued that Poland’s admission to the group would be a mark of success for Western institutions, showing how they had effectively supported Poland’s post-communist transition over the last three decades.
“Entering the G20 would show that, with such support, a [post-]communist country is able to become one of the fastest developing countries in the world within 30 years,” he said. According to World Bank data, Poland recorded the second largest GDP growth in 1990-2019 among the world’s top 40 economies.
As per the "Lived Change Index", the Chinese people have witnessed amazing prosperity. Very interesting metric. pic.twitter.com/CLlShmjdRw
— Gaurav Dalmia (@gdalmiathinks) June 20, 2021
Nowak admits, however, that removing Russia from the G20 would be difficult, given that such a decision would require unanimity from all members. China and India are seen as those most likely to oppose such a proposal.
“However, the idea is liked so much in the US that the US would be ready to leave the G20 and work towards establishing a new organisation,” claimed the Polish minister. “Such suggestions were made in backstage conversations.”
In an article for Foreign Policy magazine published last week, Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, argued that, even though removing Russia from the G20 would be difficult, the US should push to expand the club by inviting Poland, Thailand and Nigeria to join.
Kicking Russia out of the G20 is good if we can do it. If we can't, @joshualipsky has another way to dilute Russian power there: add Poland, Thailand, and Nigeria to the G-20. @mmagierowski @ACGeoEcon https://t.co/7GeyQERuW3
— Daniel Fried (@AmbDanFried) March 17, 2022
Last week, Poland’s current foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, confirmed that “talks on replacing Russia with Poland in the G20 are underway”, but added that it was still “too early to talk about the results”, reported Polsat News.
There are reports that Biden is intending to discuss Russia’s position in the G20 during a visit to Brussels this week. “We believe that it cannot be business as usual for Russia in international institutions and in the international community,” said his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, yesterday.
A European Union source told Reuters that “It has been made very clear to Indonesia [which currently holds the G20’s rotating chair] that Russia’s presence at forthcoming ministerial meetings would be highly problematic for European countries”.
Main image credite: Herman Van Rompuy/Flickr (under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
