The coalition that has governed Poland for the last five years appears to have collapsed, following dramatic events in parliament yesterday. A minority government, and possibly early elections, may be in store, say senior officials.
“This is the end of the coalition and probably [means] a minority government,” Marek Suski, a senior figure from the Law and Justice (PiS) party, told RMF FM this morning. “I think our former coalition partners should be packing up their desks already.”
PiS is the dominant force in the conservative United Right coalition that has ruled since late 2015, along with junior partners Agreement (Porozumienie) and United Poland (Solidarna Polska).
The three parties have been involved in increasingly fractious negotiations over a planned autumn restructuring of the government. These issues came to a head yesterday during disputes over two bills proposed by PiS.
In the afternoon, the head of PiS’s parliamentary caucus, Ryszard Terlecki, announced that the party was withdrawing legislation that would give immunity to officials who break (or have already broken) the law in order to tackle the coronavirus crisis. Terlecki confirmed that the reason for backtracking on the bill was a lack of support from United Poland.
He then went further, announcing that coalition negotiations had now been suspended by PiS on the orders of Jarosław Kaczyński, the party’s chairman and Poland’s de facto leader. Terlecki declared that PiS would, if necessary, restructure the government “without consulting our temporary coalition partners” and potentially call early elections.
Terlecki also offered a warning to rebels within PiS itself who were thinking of opposing an animal protection bill that was due to be voted on in parliament yesterday evening. There would be “seriously consequences” for “insubordination”, “including the suspension of party membership rights”.
That legislation had provoked splits in the ruling camp, with some figures – including the agriculture minister, Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski – warning that it would alienate PiS’s traditional rural electorate, especially farmers. The bill included a ban on fur farming and tight restrictions on ritual slaughter of animals for meat, both of which are big export industries for Poland.
When the bill came up for a vote after midnight last night, the majority of PiS MPs voted in favour. However, over a dozen opposed to it, including Ardanowski and former energy minister Henryk Kowalczyk. All MPs from United Poland voted against, while almost all from Agreement abstained.
The legislation did, however, pass after getting support from the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the main opposition group, and The Left, the third largest parliamentary caucus.
Following a dramatic day in parliament, a majority of MPs voted to pass the animal protection law.
In favour: most of PiS, almost all of centrist KO, The Left
Against: far-right Confederation, PiS coalition partner United Poland, some PiS rebels (including agriculture minister) pic.twitter.com/o0upbCxqvn
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) September 17, 2020
Asked what would happen to the rebel members of PiS, Suski told RMF this morning: “I think they will be excluded from the party. The chairman [Kaczyński] made it clear that he expected a clear and uniform position from the members of PiS.”
Regarding PiS’s relationship with its two junior partner parties, Suski said: “Since yesterday, the coalition does not exist and there are no discussions planned.” Government spokesman Piotr Mueller also told TVN24 that “there are no [coalition] talks anymore”.
Krzysztof Sobolewski, the head of PiS’s executive committee, also told state broadcaster TVP that “we are at the ‘post-coalition’ stage” now.
Speaking about what happens next, Suski said that PiS is “determined to have a minority government” and indeed already has one as of today. He indicated that decisions would now be made about dismissing ministers from government, and said specifically that Zbigniew Ziobro, the leader of United Poland, should no longer serve as justice minister.
"As of today there is no coalition, and we are set on minority government […] Our coalition partners should pack their offices," says senior PiS MP Marek Suski after minor party partners and some PiS MPs broke discipline last night on animal rights bill. https://t.co/cuJOUC2rJo
— Stanley Bill (@StanleySBill) September 18, 2020
Suski noted that “in Poland, minority governments have already ruled several times and survived until the end of the term”, but admitted it would not be easy. Parliamentary elections are not scheduled until 2023.
Yesterday, however, Terlecki ruled out the prospect of a long-term minority government. “If such a situation occurs, we will go to elections, of course alone”. The latter comment indicates that, whereas in the last two parliamentary elections PiS has stood on a single ticket with Agreement and United Poland, this time it would do so separately.
The current ruling coalition has a narrow majority of 235 MPs in Poland’s 460-seat Sejm, the dominant lower house of parliament. Among those, 198 are from PiS itself, with a further 19 from United Poland and 18 from Agreement.
Main image credit: Kancelaria Sejmu/Rafał Zambrzycki (under CC BY 2.0)
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
