Cold winter weather could cause new wave of Ukrainian refugees, says Poland

Polish officials say the country could face a new wave of Ukrainian refugees as cold weather sets in later this year and Ukraine struggles with growing damage to its energy infrastructure caused by Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s “difficult winter” could have “consequences” for Poland, warned foreign minister Radosław Sikorski on Thursday. His remarks followed comments by an interior ministry official earlier this week that there could be “a large influx of Ukrainians” in the autumn and winter.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost more than half of its power generation capacity, reported the Financial Times last month. In recent weeks, Moscow has again stepped up attacks on key infrastructure, leading to concerns about access to power and heating for Ukrainians as winter approaches.

“This winter could be very difficult for Ukraine, with consequences for us,” Sikorski told broadcaster TVN. “If in Ukrainian apartment blocks…there is no heat, no water, no electricity, then most will be uninhabitable.”

“We are doing what we can to help Ukraine, and other European countries are doing the same,” he added. “Power generators are being sent, spare parts, and so on. But this is a race against time, as the Russians continue to bombard these Ukrainian power plants and heating plants.”

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In separate comments, Dariusz Marczyński, director of the interior ministry’s department for civil protection and crisis management, told Polish MPs that “there are clear signs that a large influx of Ukrainians into Poland in autumn and winter is possible”, reported the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

“This is due to Russia’s attacks on energy, heating and transport infrastructure, the effects of which are increasingly being felt,” said Marczyński, adding that “we must be prepared for a temporary influx of these people”.

Since 2022, Poland has been one of the main destinations for Ukrainian refugees. At the end of May, there were more than 953,000 Ukrainian refugees in Poland, according to Eurostat data. Among EU countries, only Germany, with 1.3 million, had more.

Earlier this month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk proposed that Poland could send electricity to Ukraine to compensate for damage to its infrastructure.

However, he said that to do so Warsaw wants the EU to exempt the generation of that power – which would come from burning coal – from its emission trading system (ETS).

However, in response to an enquiry from Polish energy news service Energetyka24, the European Commission said that “electricity generated in the EU and exported to Ukraine is covered by the normal EU ETS rules”.

Main image credit: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid / flickr.com (under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.