The integration of Ukrainian citizens can increase Poland’s GDP by up to 3.5%, while also helping support the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war, a new report by Deloitte shows.
To achieve this, the consulting firm recommends helping refugees find work matching their skills and qualifications, supporting them in learning Polish, providing solutions for parents of small children, and ensuring access to the housing market.
Deloitte cites estimates indicating that 3.8 million Ukrainians may have crossed into Poland since Russia’s invasion of their homeland on 24 February. Of these, around 1.5 million are still in the country, the report says.
Around 30% of the refugees were working four months after their arrival in Poland, notes Michał Wodzicki, a partner in Monitor Deloitte. “We need to take further steps to activate the rest of the incomers in the labour market” and to “make sure that they are not working far below their qualifications”, he adds.
“A systematic and long-term approach to integrating Ukrainian citizens can result in GDP growth of between 0.2 and 3.5%,” says Julia Patorska, another partner at Deloitte.
Deloitte points out that Ukrainians in Poland are relatively well educated, with 61% of refugees and 69% of economic migrants (over a million of whom were in Poland before the war) having completed higher education. That compares to 29% for Poland’s population as a whole.
A study published by Poland’s central bank in August found that a slightly lower proportion of Ukrainian refugees, around half, have higher education. A similar proportion expressed a desire to work, and the bank, like Deloitte, called for efforts to ensure they can find employment matching their skills.
The professional activation of Ukrainian refugees would also help rebuild their country after the war, notes the Deloitte report, as migrants working in Poland tend to send part of their earnings to Ukraine.
Increasing their income will therefore increase revenue for their home country and assist in its reconstruction. The report, however, did not mention estimates of the potential impact of integration on the Ukrainian economy.
An earlier report by Pekao bank, which focused on the role Polish companies could play in the reconstruction of Ukraine, put potential benefit to the Polish economy at up to 190 billion zloty (€38.9 billion), equivalent to around 3.8% of its GDP.
The Deloitte report, meanwhile, points to Poland’s housing shortage as another possible impediment to the integration of Ukrainians.
According to experts, identifying and upgrading underused properties and reforming the law on rental housing are measures that could help solve the problem. It could consist primarily of identifying sites that could be converted into temporary or permanent housing and encouraging local authorities to look for vacant properties.
Last year’s national census showed that almost two million dwellings in Poland – around 12% of the total housing stock – were uninhabited when the data was collected.
The Polish government has tried to address the issue of a housing shortage by proposing a law that would empower regional authorities to convert vacant shopping centres and office buildings into apartments.
Main photo credit: Fot. Jakub Orzechowski / Agencja Gazeta
Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.
