Poland’s economy 42% larger thanks to EU membership, finds new study

Keep our news free from ads and paywalls by making a donation to support our work!

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland’s economy is 42% larger than it would be if the country had not joined the European Union, according to new analysis by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a public think tank.

Its figures come amid growing political debate in Poland about the possibility of leaving the EU. So-called “Polexit” seemed unthinkable until recently, but now has the support of up to a quarter of society in some polls.

In its analysis, PIE ran a series of calculations using around 400 models of a “hypothetical Poland” that did or did not join the EU in 2004, looking at how its economy, measured in real GDP per capita in constant US dollar terms, would have developed up to 2024 in various scenarios.

In all cases, Poland benefited by joining, with a worst-case estimate that its economy was 22% larger thanks to being in the EU and a best-case scenario of 61%. The average gain was 42%.

The findings show that “our estimate of the gains from joining the EU is not statistical noise resulting from the inclusion of a particular variable, but rather a systematic effect”, write PIE’s analysts.

They say that Poland’s economic gains from EU membership “stem largely from the benefits of joining the European single market, which facilitated trade, international investment, and improvements in institutional quality”.

The institute published similar findings in 2024, when Poland was marking the 20th anniversary of accession to the EU. It found that Poland’s GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) was 40% higher in 2022 than if it had not joined the bloc.

However, their latest analysis did not use PPP, which takes into account differences in the cost of living in each country, as PIE’s economists felt that using real GDP in constant dollar terms “better captures Poland’s international economic strength”.

In those terms, Poland’s GDP was last year estimated to have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. PIE notes, however, that the estimated economic gains for Poland from EU membership are similar whether calculated with or without PPP.

Despite evidence of the positive impact of EU membership on Poland’s economy, there has recently been growing talk of a potential “Polexit” from the bloc.

In December, an opinion poll indicated that 25% of Poles support leaving the EU, with 66% opposed to the idea. Among supporters of the right-wing and far-right opposition, 43% favoured Polexit while 44% were against it.

Another poll published last month by state pollster CBOS found that 60% of Poles believe EU membership brings more benefits and costs, while 21% hold the opposite view.

The current pro-EU government, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, has accused the opposition of pushing Poland towards the EU exit door.

“Polexit is a real threat today,” wrote Tusk last month. “It would be a catastrophe for Poland. I will do everything to stop them.”

However, the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), which is the largest opposition party, has insisted that it wants to reform, not leave, the EU. It says it wants the bloc to return to a focus on trade and to stop interfering in issues such as climate, migration and social policy.

The far-right Confederation (Konfederacja), which is the other main opposition group, is even more eurosceptic, though has not openly called for Polexit. The radical-right Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), which has seen growing support in polls, supports leaving the EU.

Poland has been one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies in recent decades. It was the only EU member state to avoid recession during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and remained among the stronger performers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2025, Poland recorded GDP growth of 3.6%, the fourth-highest rate in the EU, behind Ireland (12.3%), Malta (4.0%) and Cyprus (3.8%), according to Eurostat. Ireland’s growth figure, however, is widely seen as distorted by the activities of multinational companies, while Malta and Cyprus both have relatively small economies.

Recent data from Eurostat also show that Poland has steadily narrowed the wealth gap with the rest of the EU, reaching 81% of the EU average GDP per capita (adjusted for cost of living) in 2025, the closest it has ever been.

​
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Maciej Cisowski/Pexels

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is deputy editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She has written for Clean Energy Wire and The Times, and she hosts her own podcast, The Warsaw Wire, on Poland’s economy and energy sector. She previously worked for Reuters.