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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
A narrow majority of people in Poland do not believe that Donald Trump is a guarantor of their country’s security, a new poll has found. However, Poles are deeply divided along political lines, with most supporters of the right-wing opposition having faith in the US president.
On Sunday, when asked if he would help defend Poland and the Baltic states from Russia if Moscow continues to escalate its aggression in the region, Trump responded: “Yeah, I would, I will.”
The US, which has around 10,000 military personnel stationed in Poland, is seen as the country’s most important security partner. Earlier this month, during a visit to the White House by new Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Trump said that he was considering moving even more US troops there.
REPORTER: Will you help depend Poland and the Baltic states from Russia if Russia keeps escalating?
TRUMP: Yeah, I would pic.twitter.com/1cbogB3kP5
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 21, 2025
In a newly published poll, conducted by United Surveys for the Wirtualna Polska news website, respondents were asked if they agree or disagree with the statement that “Donald Trump is a guarantor of Poland’s security”. Just over half, 51%, disagreed while 39% agreed and 10% expressed no opinion.
However, respondents’ answers varied greatly depending on whether they identified as voters of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition – which ranges from left to centre-right – or the opposition, consisting of the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) and far-right Confederation (Konfederacja).
Over two thirds (68%) of government voters do not see Trump as a guarantor of Poland’s security, while only 15% do. Among opposition supporters, 54% believe that the US president guarantees security, while 40% do not.
PiS in particular has closely aligned itself with Trump. The ruling coalition has sought to maintain friendly relations with Washington, though many of its senior figures, including Tusk, are on record as previously criticising Trump. It is also far more EU-friendly than PiS.
A number of other recent opinion polls have suggested concern among Poles over Trump’s return to the White House and the effect it will have on regional security.
A global study by the Pew Research Center published in June found that only 35% of people in Poland say they have confidence in Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared to 75% who had confidence in President Joe Biden one year earlier.
A poll published in May by Polish state reasearch agency CBOS found that the proportion of Poles saying their country has good relations with the United States has fallen by almost 50 percentage points since two years ago to reach its lowest level since the end of communism.
Only 35% of people in Poland say they have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs compared to 75% who had confidence in Joe Biden a year ago.
That was the third-largest decline among the 24 countries surveyed by @pewresearch https://t.co/pl9pVf5hMQ
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 18, 2025
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Main image credit: Mikołaj Bujak/KPRP
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
