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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
In a dramatic turnaround, updated versions of the exit polls from Poland’s presidential election now show Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the lead.
The initial exit poll by Ipsos published immediately as voting ended at 9 p.m. on Sunday gave Rafał Trzaskowski, the deputy leader of Poland’s main centrist ruling party, Civic Platform (PO), a narrow 0.6 percentage point lead. However, given the 2 percentage point margin of error, that made the race too close to call.
Ipsos’s so-called late poll – which also takes account of early reported results from polling stations – published at 11 p.m., completely changed the outlook, with Nawrocki now leading Trzaskowski by 50.7% to 49.3%. Its margin of error is only 1 percentage point.
A late exit poll published by another leading agency, OGB, also gave Nawrocki 50.7% and Trzaskowski 49.3%. OGB’s initial exit poll had given Trzaskowski a 0.4 percentage point lead.
In the early hours of Monday, a final so-called late late poll, which includes even more official voting data, will be published by Ipsos.
The official election results are expected to be confirmed by the National Electoral Commission (PKW) on Monday morning, or early afternoon at the latest. However, the live updates of results from polling stations as they come in may effectively confirm the outcome before this formal announcement.
A number of analysts and pollsters have already declared, based on the late poll results, that Nawrocki is now set to complete what would be a remarkable victory for a man who has never previously stood in an election.
Game Over
— Łukasz Pawłowski (@LukasPawlowski) June 1, 2025
Whoever is confirmed as the winner will have a huge say in how Poland is governed during their five-year term. Trzaskowski is closely aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition, and would work closely with it, whereas Nawrocki is likely to wield the presidential veto to stymie the government’s agenda.
Trzaskowski, a multilingual former minister for European affairs and member of the European Parliament, would also favour closer relations with Brussels while Nawrocki – who was endorsed by the Trump administration during the campaign – is a eurosceptic who favours strong ties with Washington.
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.
Main image credit: Slawomir Kaminski / Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
