Poland’s main opposition parties have reached an agreement not to stand candidates against one another for the Senate at this autumn’s parliamentary elections. A similar pact in 2019 helped the opposition win back control of the chamber from the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.
The groups to have formed the alliance are the centrist Civic Platform (PO), The Left (Lewica), the centrist Poland 2050 (Polska 2050), the agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL) and a group of local government activists called Yes! For Poland (Tak! Dla Polski).
“This sends a clear signal that whoever is not with us is against us,” says Dariusz Wieczorek, a leading figure from The Left, quoted by TVN24. “Those who do not join the democratic opposition help PiS.”
Pakt senacki podpisany😀 pic.twitter.com/RJzbCx4KWd
— Marcin Kierwiński (@MKierwinski) February 28, 2023
In Poland’s parliament, the more powerful lower-house Sejm, where PiS still has a majority, is elected through proportional representation. That means that the number of seats each group gets is related to the overall percentage of the vote they receive nationally.
However, the upper-house Senate has a single-member district system, similar to those used in the US Congress and UK House of Commons. That means that each of the chamber’s 100 senators is elected as the sole representative of a geographical area.
The voting system for the Senate means that it is beneficial for parties opposed to PiS to stand a single joint candidate in each district rather than having multiple candidates who could take votes from one another, thereby allowing PiS to win.
The opposition’s pact not to stand candidates against one another in 2019 helped them win a narrow majority in the Senate. This time, one opposition senator, Zygmunt Frankiewicz of Yes! For Poland, says they believe it is “realistic” to aim for an increased majority of 65 of the Senate’s 100 seats.
United opposition candidate @FijoKonrad, supported by parties ranging from left to centre-right, has won the mayoral election in Rzeszów.
The race was seen as a key test of support, unity and strategy for both Poland's opposition and ruling coalition https://t.co/oailvUuJtv
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 14, 2021
Negotiations must still take place, however, over which candidate will stand in each district. There is likely to be stiff competition between the various groups over how many candidates each gets and in which districts.
“I don’t think we will be able to give numbers regarding the division of districts in the near future,” said Frankiewicz, quoted by news website Gazeta.pl, adding that it is likely candidates will be announced in the summer.
Frankiewicz also noted that the pact is still open for others to join. “Our aim is to maximize the result of the democratic opposition in the elections.”
“For the last three years, the Senate has been one of the last bastions of democracy, freedom and normal law-making in Poland,” said Jacek Bury, a senator from Poland 2050.
“During that period, senators from different political groups were able to talk to each other, were able to get along with each other, to make joint decisions for the benefit of all residents of Poland,” he added. “Now is the time for us to carry this wisdom and cooperation further.”
All of Poland's main centrist and left-wing opposition parties – as well as a number of civil society groups – have jointly signed an agreement on rolling back the government's judicial policies and ending the "devastating conflict" with the EU https://t.co/1R3oLOQabI
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) December 7, 2021
PO has also strongly pushed for a joint opposition list of candidates for the elections to the Sejm. However, that has been met with scepticism from other parties and last week a senior PO figure, Grzegorz Schetyna, admitted that the most probable outcome was that the opposition would stand as three main blocs.
Yesterday, Poland’s main left-wing groups agreed to form a single list of candidates for the Sejm elections. Two smaller groups – Agreement (Porozumienie) and AgroUnia – also recently signed an “ideological declaration” putting forward joint ideas.
Polling currently puts the national-conservative PiS in first place, with around 33.5% of the vote. That is well below the 43.5% it won at the last parliamentary elections and would almost certainly mean PiS could not govern alone.
That could lead PiS to seek a coalition with the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) party, which is currently polling around 6.5%. But it could also open the way for a potential coalition of left-wing, centrist and centre-right opposition parties to take power.
Monthly polling average for Poland’s main political groups (source: ewybory.eu)
Main image credit: Klub Lewicy/Flickr (under public domain)
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
