It may not be necessary to launch NATO Article 4 over missile strike, says Polish PM

As it becomes increasingly likely that yesterday’s missile strike on Poland was caused by Ukrainian air defence against a Russian attack, Poland’s prime minister has said that triggering Article 4 of the NATO Treaty may not be necessary.

Yesterday evening, when the cause of the explosion remained unclear, the Polish government announced it was considering invoking Article 4, under which NATO members “consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened”.

However, overnight US President Joe Biden revealed that it was “unlikely” the missile strike – which killed two people – had originated in Russia.

This afternoon, Biden’s Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda, confirmed that, while the missile was “most likely a Russian-made S-300”, there is “no proof that it was fired by the Russian side”. In fact, “there are many indications it was an air defence missile that unfortunately fell on Polish territory”.

Ukraine uses S-300 surface-to-air missiles, part of an air defence system developed in the Soviet Union.

Russia yesterday launched mass missile strikes against Ukraine, including on targets in the west of the country near Poland. Ukraine’s air defences managed to shoot down many of the missiles.

Speaking alongside Duda today, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed that “most of the evidence we have collected indicates that launching Article 4 of NATO will not be necessary this time”, reports news service Interia. “But this instrument is still in our hands.”

“There are no indications that this was an attack on Polish territory,” continued Morawiecki, quoted by the Polish Press Agency (PAP). “We are most likely dealing with a very unfortunate event… [of] a missile falling on Polish territory without such an intention from any of the parties.”

But he thanked Poland’s NATO allies for the support they have shown, including American help in examining the evidence at the site of the explosion and identifying the cause. “We are indeed in a very solid alliance that has worked,” said the prime minister.

Shortly afterwards, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also announced that “preliminary analysis suggests the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks”.

“This is not Ukraine’s fault,” emphasised Stoltenberg. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war.”

Main image credit: Krystian Maj / KPRM

Daniel Tilles

Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.