Poland’s ruling party chief criticises poll showing opposition winning as politically biased

The leader of Poland’s ruling party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has criticised a recent poll showing his Law and Justice (PiS) party in second place behind the main opposition grouping, Civic Coalition (KO), saying it was politically motivated.

Touring the country ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, Kaczyński said that the poll was created by the “youth wing” of the Civic Platform (PO), which is the main force in KO. He has also spoken disparagingly of Germany and the LGBT community in his speeches in recent days.

According to the Kantar poll for Wyborcza daily published on Friday, 27% of respondents intend to vote for KO, while 26% of respondents declared they would vote for PiS. It is the first poll by Kantar since 2015 to show greater support for PO or KO than for PiS.

“This is a poll that was prepared by some little group within PO’s youth wing and it was a reaction to a poll where we have 39%,” said Kaczyński during a meeting with local PiS representatives in Kórnik, near Poznań in western Poland, referring to a different survey by Social Changes for wPolityce, a conservative news website.

“By this token, Law and Justice can also set up a research studio, announce a result in which this grouping will have 60% support and write to Orbán: listen, you only had 53%, you are weak.”

It is not clear, however, what “group within the PO’s youth wing” Kaczyński was referring to. The pollster that conducted the survey – Kantar Polska – is a member of the international Kantar group. The company was created through the merger of the Millward Brown and TNS Polska agencies.

According to a compilation of six polls published in July, prepared by five pollsters, PiS can count on 35% support (down by 2 percentage points). KO would come in second place with 28.5% support (up by 1 percentage point), wrote Polish sociologist and electoral geography specialist Marcin Palade on Twitter.

Political scientists warn that in order to assess trends properly, one needs to look at more than a dozen polls over two to three months. “Before we call this poll historic, let’s wait for a dozen more,” said Antoni Dudek, a political scientist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, as quoted by Wirtualna Polska. “At this point, we can talk about a fluctuation of support.”

The poll was published at a time when the ruling party is facing a host of problems, including the highest inflation in 25 years, skyrocketing coal prices as well as the risk of an energy crisis in winter, a war in a neighbouring country and a record influx of refugees from Ukraine.

“The trend of declining support for the Law and Justice party may not be permanent. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has made it clear that Poland will not run out of coal this winter, and now either he will keep his word and PiS will bounce back, or expect further declines,” said Dudek.

PiS, which faces difficult parliamentary and local elections next year, has already begun efforts to mobilise party members, with Kaczyński attending numerous meetings with local party activists and supporters. Last month he even quit the government to focus on campaigning.

Though he formally only held the role of deputy prime minister, Kaczyński is widely acknowledged as the most powerful figure in Poland’s national-conservative United Right ruling coalition.

During his speeches in recent days, Kaczyński has introduced some of his party’s political goals for the future, including a proposal to strip parliamentarians and judges of their immunity.

He also spoke negatively about the LGBT community, criticised the role of Germany in the EU, and expressed satisfaction that Poles “no longer go to Germany to harvest asparagus” (which is not confirmed by data).

“Germans do not have the mandate to be Europe’s leaders,” Kaczyński said during a campaign meeting in Gniezno. “We can see how they are trying to centralise Europe… Whatever they start to do, ends up as a tragedy”. He went on to pledge that Poland will not allow their “hegemony” in the EU.

Main photo credit: Piotr Drabik / flickr.com

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.